Global carbon cycle and climate change

Life processes are fuelled by carbon compounds which are oxidized to CO2 (carbon dioxide), the latter is exhaled by all animals and plants. Conversely, CO2 is assimilated by plants during photosynthesis to build new carbon compounds. See also this comment about photosynthesis and global warming.

CO2 is produced by the burning of fossil fuels, which derive from the preserved products of ancient photosynthesis. The atmosphere exchanges CO2 continuously with the oceans. Regions or processes that predominantly produce CO2 are called sources of atmospheric CO2, while those that absorb CO2 are called sinks.

The following graph shows the annual carbon flows and storage in billion metric tons (Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, 2007)

While CO2 is only a very small part of the atmosphere (0.04%), it plays an important role in the energy balance of our planet: CO2 in the atmosphere acts like a blanket over the planet by trapping long-wave radiation, which would otherwise radiate heat away from the planet (greenhouse effect). As the amount of CO2 increases, so will its warming effect. CO2 is the largest contributor (currently 63%) to this effect by long-lived gases and its role increases each year. The additional burden of CO2 in the atmosphere will remain for a very long time, of the order of thousands of years, if we have to rely on the natural mechanisms of erosion and sedimentation to process the added CO2.

Source and more details: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/carbon/

Global warming - it's about you

Slowly but surely the information about global warming seems to reach the most obstinate ignorants. Therefore let's sum up the current knowledge:

• The global warming does indeed exist and it was mainly caused by humankind who is even still accelerating it.

• From global warming we expect a rise of the average temperature leading to - among other things - melting of glaciers and melting of the polar ice, increase of the mean sea level as well as generally more of extreme weather events and nature disasters like droughts, floods, tornadoes, etc.

• Only a drastic reduction of the waste gas emissions in the very near future can stop this trend.

• CO₂ (Carbon dioxide) emissions belong to the most important causes of global warming. CO₂ is inevitably created by burning fossil fuels like e.g. oil, natural gas, diesel, organic-diesel, petrol, organic-petrol, ethanol.

• Recent investigations have shown that inconceivable catastrophic changes in the environment will take place as soon as the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere reaches the level of about 450 ppm. Today's concentration is already at 380 ppm and it raises on average 2 - 3 ppm each year, so that the critical value will be reached in approximately 25 to 30 years from now. See here for some graphs.

In the past, there was more or less a direct relation between the energy consumption (mainly fossil fuels) and the welfare of a country. This has so far prevented many countries from taking serious actions to reduce their consumption of fossil fuels. As of today however, this relation is not true any more. Germany is a good example of a country where the CO₂ emissions have been decreasing for several years despite of a growth of the economy.

In the Kyoto conference many countries have agreed to reduce their CO₂ output until the year 2012, on average to 5% below their respective emissions of the year 1990. The USA - as the largest CO₂ producer world wide - and most developing countries refused to sign this agreement.

Global phenomena are difficult to reach consensus about

Already today it becomes apparent, that a lot of western countries will largely miss their promises concerning the CO₂ reduction. Several signer countries have even increased their CO₂ output since the conference.

With this background, discussions have recently started about potential scenarios after the end of the Kyoto agreement, that is after the year 2012. The goal is to move also the USA as well as the developing countries into some sort of obligations.

However, even if it should be possible to sign new, similar agreements for the time after 2012, it is doubtful whether they would be more respected than the ones from Kyoto. This would only be different if sanctions were automatically imposed on those countries, whose CO₂ emissions per person still exceed a certain CO₂ level after a given transitional period. In the negotiations, each country would of course claim to be qualified for a higher CO₂ emission per person than the other countries. Almost any country would fight for an emission level as high as possible. This would of course defeat the original purpose of the reduction agreement.

We are now at the core of the problem: Global warming is a typical global phenomena, where the causer of the emission does not automatically suffer from it himself. Cause and effect are separated both in time as well as geographical.

For non-global phenomena, this is different. Let's for example take a chemical accident with poisons: The immediate environment of the plant will be contaminated, human beings, animals and plants in the close environment are harmed. The damage is almost immediate and clearly visible. For this reason, laws are legislated and strictly imposed for storing and handling of chemical poisons, .

Personal responsibility

If you increase your personal petrol or gas consumption for this year by say 1'000 litres because you use the car more often, will this lead to natural disasters? And if yes, where? Nobody will be able to take you to the court, because it is not possible to prove a direct relation between your increased yearly consumption of fuels and a drought in Africa. This does not change the fact, however, that the CO2 emission produced by your car does indeed contribute to the global warming. No doubt, you and I are responsible for the climate change, too.

The following testimonies are typical:

• Me alone, I cannot change anything, why should I then change my personal behavior?

• I respect the laws, I don't do anything illegal. I am not against your saving energy, but leave me in peace with your ideas.

• My energy requirement is modest. I won't change before the big polluters have changed their behavior.

These declarations share a fundamentally wrong assumption that we are not fully responsible for what we do. But the contrary is true: We are indeed fully responsible for everything we do or do not do! The fact that we don't get fined or taken into prison for certain deeds does by far not mean that these deeds do not have a big impact on our personal future life.

Life is about you and your behaviour (and not about the behaviour of others)

The goal of all human beings is to live in joy and perpetual harmony with oneself and with the environment, to be able to enjoy life free of sorrows and fears. We approach this goal step by step over a series of incarnations. (see here ).

Let's compare this with classes in school or with a study at the university: Based on your performance within the current semester, you can either advance to the next higher level or you will have to repeat the current level until you meet a certain performance criteria. In a similar manner our behaviour in daily life decides whether we approach the above mentioned goal of perpetual harmony with ourselves and with our environment or not.

Hence it should become evident that harming or even destroying nature - i.e. our environment and basis of being - does at the very end hinder ourselves most: We harm or destroy exactly what we eventually wanted to get in unison and harmony with.

In regard of the common rude and thoughtless dealing with nature, the above may sound rather hopeless for our future. For your personal development however, only your personal behavior counts and not the behavior of "average people" or of a certain majority. It's only about you! Therefore it is possible to develop yourself when you limit your negative footprint of your life here on earth (e.g. consumption of resources, pollution of the environment) to an acceptable level. This is your contribution to solving the problem.

On the other hand, it is impossible to get in perpetual harmony with yourself and with your environment if you do not limit your negative footprint to an acceptable level. It is also a matter of respect towards nature and all its creatures.

There is absolutely no reason at all to wait for laws or incentives from the government before you start with your personal contribution. Who, he does this immediately and by free will, will automatically get better conditions for his or her personal future - be it in this or in next incarnations. For the personal development, only decisions made by free will really do count. There will be very little effect on your personal development if you buy a more economic car because you cannot afford the fuel for a larger car any more. However, if you decide to buy a more economic car of your own free will because you want to reduce your negative effects on the environment, as reverence for the nature, then this will certainly have positive effects on your personal future.

Swindling is impossible - personal responsibility cannot be escaped from

Above we mentioned the similarity to a school or university. There is a teacher or professor who judges the students and their exams. However, who does judge our behaviour in our daily life? Who or what does decide about our personal future, how happy and content we are, how secure we feel?

This is exactly that part in ourselves, which makes "life" in us, differentiate human beings from dead material and which shapes our individuality. It is sometimes called "higher self", "spirit", "mind", "soul", "God in us", etc. It is not important how we call this part of us, however it is very important to recognize that it is part of ourselves. Therefore it is impossible to swindle or to escape from the personal responsibility. For you cannot hide anything from yourself!

The analysis and judgement of our decisions is taking place permanently and leads to corrections on our way of life: In order to learn what we are still missing, "life" will in the future confront us with situations that will give us the chance to try again. And it will repeat either in this or in future incarnations until we indeed do learn what we need to learn. (for further information have a look here ).

Take your personal responsibility serious (also) regarding the pollution which your existence and behavior either directly or indirectly creates. You do not only help prevent the earth from collapsing, but you do help yourself, too. If you personally take responsibility, you won't loose anything. On the contrary, you and everybody else is just gaining advantages.

Deeds are more important than words - do start now!

http://timeforchange.org/

CO2 - the major cause of global warming

From: timeforchange.org

Global warming is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases . 72% of the totally emitted greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide (CO2), 18% Methane and 9% Nitrous oxide (NOx). Carbon dioxide emissions therefore are the most important cause of global warming. CO₂ is inevitably created by burning fuels like e.g. oil, natural gas, diesel, organic-diesel, petrol, organic-petrol, ethanol. The emissions of CO2 have been dramatically increased within the last 50 years and are still increasing by almost 3% each year, see graph below:

Graph 1: CO2-emissions world-wide by year (data from wri.org)

Graph 2: CO2 emissions world-wide by year and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by year

The carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere where it remains for 100 to 200 years. This leads to an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere (see above on the right hand side), which in turn causes the average temperature on Earth to raise (see graph below).

Chart 3: Increase of global average temperature for the last 20 years (source: wri.org)

Recent investigations have shown that inconceivable catastrophic changes in the environment will take place if the global temperatures increase by more than 2° C (3.6° F). A warming of 2° C (3.6° F) corresponds to a carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration of about 450 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere.

As of beginning of 2007, the CO2 concentration is already at 380 ppm and it raises on average 2 - 3 ppm each year, so that the critical value will be reached in approximately 20 to 30 years from now. See here for some graphs about the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and the greenhouse gas emissions by sector.

Mitigation goals for the main cause of global warming: carbon dioxide emissions

As a result of the above mentioned findings, there seems to be a consensus among the leading developed countries that the temperature increase caused by global warming must not exceed 2° C (3.6° F). For example the European Union (EU) has committed itself to this threshold already in 2005.

To reach this target the annual global CO2 emissions have to be reduced from about 28 Gigatons in 2006 to 20 Gigatons of CO2 by the year 2050 and to 10 Gigatons of CO2 by the year 2100 according to IPCC. At the first glance, this does not look like a major reduction. However one should keep in mind that the world population will grow from 6.4 billion people in 2007 to about 9.5 billion people in 2050. At the same time more and more developing countries will progress their industrialisation and as a result they will want to copy our western life style causing high CO2 emissions.

The world-wide average CO2 emissions by capita was about 4 tons per year in 2005. For North America it was about 20 tons and for Europe about 10 tons per year per capita. By 2050, the world-wide average CO2 emission per capita needs to be reduced to 2 tons per year. In the following years, the emissions will need again to be cut by half. Download and use our Excel calculator to simulate cause and effects of global warming . Based on an average carbon footprint, you can test ways to mitigate global warming yourself. Alternatively, you can have a look at some simulation results how global warming can be stopped below 2 C.

Have a look at the CO2 emissions per capita by country to see how far away from this goal value of 2 tons per year our western life style is.

In a fair world, there is absolutely no justification for the western world to pollute the Earth more than others. So we should aim to reduce our carbon footprint to 2 tons per capita per year until 2050. This means people in industrialised nations will have to cut down their carbon dioxide emissions to values reaching 10% to 20% of the current values.

The above mentioned goal can only be reached if our life style becomes a sustainable one. The first and most efficient measure is a reduction of our energy consumption. In addition, it is inevitable to make thoughts about the true meaning of life and change our personal behaviour accordingly.